tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46953185140818544842024-03-05T14:26:02.642-08:00Lux TPensamentos aleatóriosAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-3331372585270191342017-01-22T04:35:00.002-08:002017-01-22T05:28:20.972-08:00Como investir no IBOVESPA<span style="font-size: large;">O BOVA11 é um fundo de índice que busca obter retornos similares à performance do Índice Bovespa (Ibovespa). </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: lime;">O Ibovespa é uma carteira de ações teórica</span>, que busca representar as ações brasileiras mais negociadas. Não é possível investir no Ibovespa diretamente. <span style="background-color: lime;">Já o BOVA11 é um fundo real</span>, que pode ser comprado na bolsa de valores.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">A figura abaixo mostra a composição aproximada do BOVA11:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTqvhGTpt2Am0a45QLj-nhZCl8stxr8NpaFbTbOjrssLxcJdPjxiXDoYXNmqLLUeJR4o8ydSgTtU4D2EWAz6507Hakt5oUYQe7Ns8pmDs-tV7WWsxkwnC_3f8GjWxYygmoudnK2yGwqiA/s1600/bova11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTqvhGTpt2Am0a45QLj-nhZCl8stxr8NpaFbTbOjrssLxcJdPjxiXDoYXNmqLLUeJR4o8ydSgTtU4D2EWAz6507Hakt5oUYQe7Ns8pmDs-tV7WWsxkwnC_3f8GjWxYygmoudnK2yGwqiA/s1600/bova11.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">BOVA11 - Composição</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Em Janeiro/2017, esse fundo possui aproximadamente ações de aproximadamente 60 empresas diferentes.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">A figura abaixo mostra as 20 empresas com maior participação no fundo:</span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFlrWbv9XJw7MybGNNptsWd1FC3yweGRVCxVwn54vZbAtcbVygrr26agdsn_fFshorh18j6iQDFHOKR9UbM_ayxGIgdZnaRlgOsdiFJx9xGNMt7YwdNoMfqNHh4fi-PMraiKoAj5Yl_0U/s1600/bova11-20+maiores.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFlrWbv9XJw7MybGNNptsWd1FC3yweGRVCxVwn54vZbAtcbVygrr26agdsn_fFshorh18j6iQDFHOKR9UbM_ayxGIgdZnaRlgOsdiFJx9xGNMt7YwdNoMfqNHh4fi-PMraiKoAj5Yl_0U/s1600/bova11-20+maiores.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">BOVA11 - 20 maiores participantes</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">A ação com maior participação é Itau Unibanco Holding, com 10,36%. Logo em seguida vem o Bradesco, com 7,56%.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Comparando com um fundo similar dos EUA, o VTI (com 3.600 empresas diferentes), percebemos que <span style="background-color: lime;">a diversificação do BOVA11</span> (com apenas 60 empresas) <span style="background-color: lime;">é muito menor</span>. <a href="http://luxtextum.blogspot.com.br/2016/12/investindo-em-todas-as-acoes-da-bolsa.html" target="">Clique aqui para saber mais sobre o VTI</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #666666; font-size: large;">As informações desse artigo não representam indicação de compra.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Fontes:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/goog_1017510710"><br /></a></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.blackrock.com/br/products/251816/ishares-ibovespa-fundo-de-ndice-fund" target="_blank">Blackrock: BOVA11</a></span><br />
<a href="http://www.bmfbovespa.com.br/pt_br/produtos/indices/indices-amplos/indice-bovespa-ibovespa.htm" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: large;">BMF: Ibovespa</span></a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-47458356644758668732016-12-21T08:16:00.000-08:002016-12-21T08:27:54.906-08:00Investindo em todas as ações da bolsa dos EUA<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZUF3Q1KdURAfyfD6y3jN4Jq3IIcbnRbXuCzV4jotSwSQNqIFndL5ySjwDXlO6jKFxCTltWpwck7-nWUlJ2dO1XzSXNZO5LI2ICmRdEB_NtEZpcpvwIIIRU4AgjjM6FR_XoTY2hyphenhyphenx_5vg/s1600/vti.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZUF3Q1KdURAfyfD6y3jN4Jq3IIcbnRbXuCzV4jotSwSQNqIFndL5ySjwDXlO6jKFxCTltWpwck7-nWUlJ2dO1XzSXNZO5LI2ICmRdEB_NtEZpcpvwIIIRU4AgjjM6FR_XoTY2hyphenhyphenx_5vg/s1600/vti.png" title="Vanguard Total Stock Market - VTI ETF" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Vanguard Total Stock Market - VTI</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: greenyellow;">O Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) é um fundo de ações (ETF) norte-americano que procura representar todo o mercado de ações dos EUA.</span> Em dezembro/2016, esse fundo possui aproximadamente 3.600 empresas diferentes. A figura acima mostra a distribuição percentual de cada ação. Podemos perceber que esse é um fundo bastante diversificado em termos de número de ações.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Vamos dar um zoom nas ações mais representativas, que representam 25% do capital do fundo:</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwioXniLaYENzihyphenhyphenGfLDySc7MEnv9PLW-rlGcAuSG3fGvsZSz4LKrd920Wr3AFBIV7k6okVAfXx5AOzHW2m0ATDHSM3zDXF4suf4bXZLw5KJZOb7qUbwzPmbbjYFzrfR4_MX7vMBraW5k/s1600/vti-primeiro-quadrante.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwioXniLaYENzihyphenhyphenGfLDySc7MEnv9PLW-rlGcAuSG3fGvsZSz4LKrd920Wr3AFBIV7k6okVAfXx5AOzHW2m0ATDHSM3zDXF4suf4bXZLw5KJZOb7qUbwzPmbbjYFzrfR4_MX7vMBraW5k/s1600/vti-primeiro-quadrante.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">VTI - 25%</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtrJa5MTjt52XxGpuu5GOQkg22w8WSnoicFLDVgnNM-U9NWhmRbLne1r6pwrD4jAo4SaFbtckqj9NXJKQjR35Ao3Kh1-0f2i9bIYL04RPOyENxpExiSYT5OnGdE7LRb-RGdejUtkcbVkI/s1600/vti-primeiro-quadrante-percentual.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtrJa5MTjt52XxGpuu5GOQkg22w8WSnoicFLDVgnNM-U9NWhmRbLne1r6pwrD4jAo4SaFbtckqj9NXJKQjR35Ao3Kh1-0f2i9bIYL04RPOyENxpExiSYT5OnGdE7LRb-RGdejUtkcbVkI/s1600/vti-primeiro-quadrante-percentual.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">VTI - 25%</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">A ação com maior participação é da Apple, com 2,45% do total do fundo. Logo após vem a Microsoft, com 1,93%. <span style="background-color: greenyellow;">Esse fundo é muito citado em blogs de finanças norte-americanos como uma forma relativamente segura de investir na bolsa, devido à sua grande diversificação e baixa taxa de administração.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Fontes:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT&FundId=0970#tab=0" target="_blank">Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF</a></span><br />
<a href="http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2011/05/18/how-to-make-money-in-the-stock-market/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: large;">How to make money in the stock market</span></a></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-37777901035619877502016-12-19T04:29:00.000-08:002016-12-20T16:37:04.643-08:00Os preços dos imóveis estão caindo<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV4JBlYDcamkiUca0nG2oL0rQalqH3L3XZmtH6FMZ0X7GZzm-H_HIut4gkw4JLW6CaF-_Y2W_MYby8wBVaScjV_Nh-HiJmsBL6mIBXBdLvonHDrJf0Ci5RtDUTrhXNcRHDtTzC9XXIy90/s1600/9670996422_3ac3b10e16_z.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV4JBlYDcamkiUca0nG2oL0rQalqH3L3XZmtH6FMZ0X7GZzm-H_HIut4gkw4JLW6CaF-_Y2W_MYby8wBVaScjV_Nh-HiJmsBL6mIBXBdLvonHDrJf0Ci5RtDUTrhXNcRHDtTzC9XXIy90/s400/9670996422_3ac3b10e16_z.jpg" width="100%" /></a></div>
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<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">O<span style="background-color: greenyellow;"> Índice de Valores de Garantia de Imóveis Residenciais Financiados</span> (IVG-R) é divulgado pelo Banco Central do Brasil e mostra a tendência dos valores de imóveis residenciais a partir de 2001.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Quando um imóvel é financiado, a instituição financiadora (a Caixa Econômica, por exemplo) faz uma avaliação do seu preço. Esses valores de avaliação são a base do IVG-R, que possui dados de 11 cidades: Belém, Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Goiânia, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador e São Paulo.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">A linha azul mostra o IVG-R como divulgado pelo Banco Central. Podemos perceber que de <span style="background-color: greenyellow;">2001 a 2014, o preço nominal dos imóveis aumentou mais de 5 vezes</span>. No entanto, a partir de 2014, iniciou-se uma estagnação, com queda nominal em 2016. <span style="background-color: greenyellow;">Nominalmente, em 2016 os preços dos imóveis voltaram a patamares similares a 2013.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">No entanto, a inflação entre 2001 e 2016 foi considerável. Portanto, resolvi fazer uma análise do IVG-R levando em conta os valores reais, corrigidos pela inflação. Essa análise é mostrada na linha laranja. Podemos perceber três períodos:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: greenyellow;"><span style="font-size: large;">1) 2001 a 2006: os preços dos imóveis acompanharam a inflação, com queda de preços real em 2003.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: greenyellow;"><span style="font-size: large;">2) 2007 a 2014: aumento real do preço dos imóveis, que, em média, dobraram de valor.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: greenyellow;"><span style="font-size: large;">3) 2014 a 2016: queda real do preço dos imóveis, voltando, em termos reais, a patamares similares aos de 2010.</span></span>
<br/>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">O gráfico abaixo mostra que os preços dos imóveis começaram a subir com menor intensidade a partir de 2010.</span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
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transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,189.72,648.82)">
<tspan
id="tspan5282"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999">9%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5284">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5288)"
id="g5286" />
</g>
<g
id="g5292">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5296)"
id="g5294">
<text
id="text5300"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,218.42,625.27)">
<tspan
id="tspan5302"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999">2%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5304">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5308)"
id="g5306" />
</g>
<g
id="g5312">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5316)"
id="g5314">
<text
id="text5320"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,247.15,631.56)">
<tspan
id="tspan5322"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999">4%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5324">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5328)"
id="g5326" />
</g>
<g
id="g5332">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5336)"
id="g5334">
<text
id="text5340"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,272.74,660.62)">
<tspan
id="tspan5342"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999 12.24">12%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5344">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5348)"
id="g5346" />
</g>
<g
id="g5352">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5356)"
id="g5354">
<text
id="text5360"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,301.46,673.39)">
<tspan
id="tspan5362"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999 12.24">15%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5364">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5368)"
id="g5366" />
</g>
<g
id="g5372">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5376)"
id="g5374">
<text
id="text5380"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,330.17,681.5)">
<tspan
id="tspan5382"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999 12.24">18%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5384">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5388)"
id="g5386" />
</g>
<g
id="g5392">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5396)"
id="g5394">
<text
id="text5400"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,358.9,689.71)">
<tspan
id="tspan5402"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999 12.24">20%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5404">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5408)"
id="g5406" />
</g>
<g
id="g5412">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5416)"
id="g5414">
<text
id="text5420"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,387.62,670.58)">
<tspan
id="tspan5422"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999 12.24">15%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5424">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5428)"
id="g5426" />
</g>
<g
id="g5432">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5436)"
id="g5434">
<text
id="text5440"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,419.45,649.49)">
<tspan
id="tspan5442"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999">9%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5444">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5448)"
id="g5446" />
</g>
<g
id="g5452">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5456)"
id="g5454">
<text
id="text5460"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,448.18,630.67)">
<tspan
id="tspan5462"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999">4%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5464">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5468)"
id="g5466" />
</g>
<g
id="g5472">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5476)"
id="g5474">
<text
id="text5480"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,476.88,622.68)">
<tspan
id="tspan5482"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999">1%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5484">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5488)"
id="g5486" />
</g>
<g
id="g5492">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5496)"
id="g5494">
<text
id="text5500"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,503.69,565.58)">
<tspan
id="tspan5502"
y="0"
x="0">-</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5504">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5508)"
id="g5506">
<text
id="text5512"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,507.41,565.58)">
<tspan
id="tspan5514"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999">8%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5516">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5520)"
id="g5518" />
</g>
<g
id="g5524">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5528)"
id="g5526">
<text
id="text5532"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,529.39,527.02)">
<tspan
id="tspan5534"
y="0"
x="0">-</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5536">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5540)"
id="g5538">
<text
id="text5544"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;font-size:12px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:Calibri;writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#000000;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,533.11,527.02)">
<tspan
id="tspan5546"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.1199999 12.24">18%</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5548">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5552)"
id="g5550" />
</g>
<g
id="g5556">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5560)"
id="g5558">
<text
id="text5564"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,99.72,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5566"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2001</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5568">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5572)"
id="g5570">
<text
id="text5576"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,128.45,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5578"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2002</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5580">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5584)"
id="g5582">
<text
id="text5588"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,157.15,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5590"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2003</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5592">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5596)"
id="g5594">
<text
id="text5600"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,185.88,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5602"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2004</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5604">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5608)"
id="g5606">
<text
id="text5612"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,214.58,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5614"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2005</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5616">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5620)"
id="g5618">
<text
id="text5624"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,243.31,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5626"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2006</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5628">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5632)"
id="g5630">
<text
id="text5636"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,272.02,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5638"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2007</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5640">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5644)"
id="g5642">
<text
id="text5648"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,300.74,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5650"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2008</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5652">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5656)"
id="g5654">
<text
id="text5660"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,329.45,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5662"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2009</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5664">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5668)"
id="g5666">
<text
id="text5672"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,358.18,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5674"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2010</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5676">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5680)"
id="g5678">
<text
id="text5684"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,386.88,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5686"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2011</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5688">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5692)"
id="g5690">
<text
id="text5696"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,415.61,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5698"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2012</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5700">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5704)"
id="g5702">
<text
id="text5708"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,444.31,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5710"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2013</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5712">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5716)"
id="g5714">
<text
id="text5720"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,473.04,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5722"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2014</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5724">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5728)"
id="g5726">
<text
id="text5732"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,501.74,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5734"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2015</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5736">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5740)"
id="g5738">
<text
id="text5744"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:11.03999996px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#7f7f7f;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,530.47,711.6)">
<tspan
id="tspan5746"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 5.52 11.1504 16.670401">2016</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5748">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5752)"
id="g5750">
<text
id="text5756"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:24px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#77933c;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,147.14,740.76)">
<tspan
id="tspan5758"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 6.408 20.184">IVG</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5760">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5764)"
id="g5762">
<text
id="text5768"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:24px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#77933c;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,182.54,740.76)">
<tspan
id="tspan5770"
y="0"
x="0">-</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5772">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5776)"
id="g5774">
<text
id="text5780"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:24px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#77933c;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,189.86,740.76)">
<tspan
id="tspan5782"
sodipodi:role="line"
y="0"
x="0 13.512 19.08 34.200001 46.271999 53.855999 59.759998 71.615997 81.648003 87.552002 100.56 113.448 125.304 138.192 151.15199">R Deflacionado</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5784">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5788)"
id="g5786">
<text
id="text5792"
style="font-variant:normal;font-weight:bold;font-size:24px;font-family:Calibri;-inkscape-font-specification:'Calibri Bold';writing-mode:lr-tb;fill:#77933c;fill-opacity:1;fill-rule:nonzero;stroke:none"
transform="matrix(1,0,0,-1,346.13,740.76)">
<tspan
id="tspan5794"
y="0"
x="0">-</tspan>
</text>
</g>
</g>
<g
id="g5796">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5800)"
id="g5798" />
</g>
<g
id="g5804">
<g
clip-path="url(#clipPath5808)"
id="g5806">
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-80533846543105893522016-12-03T15:19:00.001-08:002016-12-03T15:19:37.738-08:00Curiosidade matemática: 0,999999... é igual a 1!<span style="font-size: large;">Você sabia que 0,9999... é uma outra forma de escrever o número 1?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Não acredita?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">1 / 9 = 0,1111...</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Multiplicando os dois lados da equação por 9:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">9 * (1 / 9) = 9 * 0,1111...</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">9 * (1 / 9) = 0,9999...</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><strike>9</strike> * (1 / <strike>9</strike>) = 0,9999...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: palegreen; font-size: large;">1 = 0,9999...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: palegreen; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Surpreso? Eu também fiquei!</span><div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">Fonte:</span><div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/0.999..." target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/0.999...</a></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-70488091342090296622016-10-28T13:56:00.000-07:002016-10-30T08:47:21.304-07:00Calculadora de taxas<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbFoS8uUk3Jd5WRZTQ9oh2hy9ewaVDQszuTR58rzwP5gba3kxUGlHlh00YPIcZukmAgBH5dFI9HJIcEt-mpUqx32F0b6Kh00aEAhRQ3TPSvyQcCu8Baj_pNJa7v1MNVBxnOqOYlhaTZ3s/s1600/4883498118_79f7f6f688_z.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbFoS8uUk3Jd5WRZTQ9oh2hy9ewaVDQszuTR58rzwP5gba3kxUGlHlh00YPIcZukmAgBH5dFI9HJIcEt-mpUqx32F0b6Kh00aEAhRQ3TPSvyQcCu8Baj_pNJa7v1MNVBxnOqOYlhaTZ3s/s400/4883498118_79f7f6f688_z.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<style>
.calc-example {
color: #777;
font-size: 18px;
margin-bottom: 10px;
display: block;
}
.calc-input {
margin-top: 20px;
display: block;
width: 90%;
height: 34px;
padding: 6px 12px;
font-size: 30px;
line-height: 1.42857143;
color: #555;
background-color: #fff;
background-image: none;
border: 1px solid #ccc;
border-radius: 4px;
-webkit-box-shadow: inset 0 1px 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, .075);
box-shadow: inset 0 1px 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, .075);
-webkit-transition: border-color ease-in-out .15s, -webkit-box-shadow ease-in-out .15s;
-o-transition: border-color ease-in-out .15s, box-shadow ease-in-out .15s;
transition: border-color ease-in-out .15s, box-shadow ease-in-out .15s;
}
.calc-input:focus {
border-color: #66afe9;
outline: 0;
-webkit-box-shadow: inset 0 1px 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, .075), 0 0 8px rgba(102, 175, 233, .6);
box-shadow: inset 0 1px 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, .075), 0 0 8px rgba(102, 175, 233, .6);
}
.calc-result {
font-size: 30px;
color: #9c27b0;
padding: 5px;
}
.calc-app {
margin-bottom: 20px;
background-color: #fff;
border: 1px solid transparent;
border-radius: 4px;
border-color: #ddd;
-webkit-box-shadow: 0 1px 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);
box-shadow: 0 1px 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);
}
.calc-header {
padding: 10px 15px;
border-bottom: 1px solid transparent;
border-top-left-radius: 3px;
border-top-right-radius: 3px;
color: white;
background-color: #9c27b0;
border-color: #ddd;
font-weight: bold;
font-size: 30px;
}
.calc-body {
padding: 15px;
}
</style>
<br />
<div class="calc-app">
<div class="calc-header">
Calculadora de taxas</div>
<div class="calc-body">
<span class="calc-example">Taxa mensal para anual: 1% * 12 (multiplique por 12)</span>
<span class="calc-example">Taxa anual para mensal: 6% / 12 (divida por 12)</span>
<span class="calc-example">Descontar inflação: 12% - 4% (subtraia a inflação da taxa de rentabilidade)</span>
<input class="calc-input" id="calcAppInput" placeholder="" />
<br />
<span class="calc-result" id="calcAppResult"></span>
</div>
</div>
<script>
(function() {
var rateMath = function() {
return {
add: add,
multiply: multiply,
divide: divide,
subtract: subtract
};
function add(x, y) {
return (1 + x) * (1 + y) - 1;
}
function subtract(x, y) {
return (1 + x) / (1 + y) - 1;
}
function multiply(x, n) {
return Math.pow(1 + x, n) - 1;
}
function divide(x, n) {
return multiply(x, 1 / n);
}
};
var expressionParser = function() {
const regex = /\s*([-]{0,1}\d+[.,]{0,1}\d*)%{0,1}\s*([\+\-\*\/])\s*([-]{0,1}\d+[.,]{0,1}\d*)%{0,1}\s*={0,1}/;
return {
parse: parse
};
function fixSeparator(s) {
return s.replace(/,/g, '.');
}
function toNumber(s) {
return parseFloat(fixSeparator(s));
}
function parse(text) {
var match = regex.exec(text);
if (match) {
var _op1 = toNumber(match[1]);
var _op2 = toNumber(match[3]);
return {
op1: _op1,
operator: match[2],
op2: _op2
}
} else {
return null;
}
}
};
var rateCalculator = function() {
var _rateMath = rateMath();
return {
calc: calc
};
function calc(expression) {
if (!expression) {
return null;
}
var result = {};
var op1 = expression.op1;
var op2 = expression.op2;
switch (expression.operator) {
case '+':
result.description = '( 1 + ' + op1 + '% ) * ( 1 + ' + op2 + '% ) - 1';
result.value = _rateMath.add(op1 / 100, op2 / 100);
break;
case '-':
result.description = '( 1 + ' + op1 + '% ) / ( 1 + ' + op2 + '% ) - 1';
result.value = _rateMath.subtract(op1 / 100, op2 / 100);
break;
case '*':
result.description = '( 1 + ' + op1 + '% ) ^ ' + op2 + ' - 1';
result.value = _rateMath.multiply(op1 / 100, op2);
break;
case '/':
result.description = '( 1 + ' + op1 + '% ) ^ (1/' + op2 + ') - 1';
result.value = _rateMath.divide(op1 / 100, op2);
break;
}
return result;
}
};
var calculatorApp = function() {
var result;
var calc = rateCalculator();
var parser = expressionParser();
return {
setExpression: setExpression,
getResult: getResult
}
function setExpression(text) {
var expression = parser.parse(text);
result = calc.calc(expression);
}
function getResult() {
return result;
}
}
var calculatorAppView = function(calcApp) {
var input = document.getElementById('calcAppInput');
var resultView = document.getElementById('calcAppResult');
input.oninput = onInputChange;
return {
init: init
};
function onInputChange() {
calcApp.setExpression(input.value);
var result = calcApp.getResult();
resultView.innerHTML = displayResult(result);
}
function displayResult(result) {
var display = '';
if (result !== null) {
display = result.description + ' = ' + (result.value * 100).toFixed(4) + '%';
}
return display;
}
function init(text) {
input.value = text;
onInputChange();
}
};
var view = calculatorAppView(calculatorApp());
view.init("6% / 12");
})();
</script>
<span style="font-size: large;">Quando estamos falando de taxas, na maioria das vezes não podemos realizar as operações de soma, subtração, divisão ou multiplicação da forma tradicional. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Por exemplo, <span style="background-color: palegreen;">uma taxa anual de 12% não é equivalente a uma taxa mensal de 1%.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">R$ 100,00</span><span style="font-size: large;"> * (1 + x%) ^ 12 = </span><span style="font-size: large;">R$ 100,00 * (1 + 12%)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(1 + x%) ^ 12 = </span><span style="font-size: large;">(1 + 12%)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(1 + x%) = (1 + 12%) ^ 1/12</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">x% = (1 + 12%) ^ 1/12 - 1</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">x% = 0,9489%</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #a64d79;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #a64d79;"><b>12% ao ano = 0,9489% ao mês</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">Uma taxa mensal de 1% não é equivalente a uma taxa anual de 12%.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">R$ 100,00 * (1 + x%) = R$ 100,00</span><span style="font-size: large;"> * (1 + 1%) ^ 12</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(1 + x%) = </span><span style="font-size: large;">(1 + 1%) ^12</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">x% = (1 + 1%) ^ 12 - 1</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">x% = 12,6825%</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #a64d79; font-size: large;"><b>1% ao mês = 12,6825% ao ano</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: palegreen;"><span style="font-size: large;">O rendimento real de uma aplicação que ofereça uma rentabilidade de 12% ao ano, dado que a inflação anual foi de 8%, não é 4%.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">R$ 100,00 * (1 + 8%) * (1 + x%) = R$ 100,00 * (1 + 12%)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(1 + 8%) * (1 + x%) = (1 + 12%) </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(1 + x%) = (1 + 12%) / (1 + 8%)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">x% = (1 + 12%) / (1 + 8%) - 1</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">x% = 3,7037%</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="color: #a64d79; font-size: large;"><b>12% ao ano, descontada uma inflação de 8% ao ano = 3,7037%</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">A calculadora acima redefine os operadores aritméticos, fornecendo os resultados corretos para as operações envolvendo taxas.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
Fonte da foto: <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jojakeman/4883498118" target="_blank">https://www.flickr.com/</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-91729408131362441702016-10-23T11:50:00.001-07:002016-12-21T08:20:32.774-08:00Como investir no exterior<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkklYpC9dKu9U06GgIjdlJHflPDnRyscUsjD6Y8QZB8TxCXafQjLZ_sFofzNFpxNedgIoyC2zg3nvo3iZYhmBPBZQJ9OOEXYvDokByY5oL7S1PJrBkcyTgZY5BKgqwtkmnhrI5JSY86Ic/s1600/6884645302_a9777dd98c_z.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Mapa antigo do mundo" border="0" height="363" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkklYpC9dKu9U06GgIjdlJHflPDnRyscUsjD6Y8QZB8TxCXafQjLZ_sFofzNFpxNedgIoyC2zg3nvo3iZYhmBPBZQJ9OOEXYvDokByY5oL7S1PJrBkcyTgZY5BKgqwtkmnhrI5JSY86Ic/s400/6884645302_a9777dd98c_z.jpg" title="Mapa" width="484" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">Sempre tive vontade de investir parte do meu patrimônio no exterior, como estratégia de <a href="http://luxtextum.blogspot.com.br/2016/10/diversificacao-de-investimentos.html">diversificação</a>. Mas imaginava que só faria isso no futuro, por ser algo muito complexo.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Mas ao ler as dicas do <a href="http://viverdedividendos.org/" target="_blank">Viver de Dividendos</a>, resolvi experimentar, com um valor pequeno.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">O primeiro passo foi abrir uma conta na corretora <a href="https://drivewealth.com/" target="_blank">Drive Wealth</a></span>. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">O procedimento é todo online e bem simples.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">Em seguida, fiz uma remessa para a corretora, através do <a href="http://remessaonline.com.br/" target="_blank">Remessa Online</a>.</span> O pagamento é feito através de um boleto, gerado pelo site. Outra vez, fiquei surpreso com a facilidade. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Em dois dias, o dinheiro estava na conta da corretora. Resolvi aplicar inicialmente em um fundo ETF: <a href="https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT&FundId=0970" target="_blank">Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF</a>. Esse ETF tenta reproduzir o comportamento do mercado de ações norte-americano como um todo.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">Algo que eu imaginava ser extremamente complicado se mostrou muito mais simples do que eu imaginava</span>. Agora pretendo, aos poucos, estudar mais e traçar uma estratégia para diversificação de no mínimo 10% dos meus investimentos no exterior.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">E você, já pensou em investir no exterior?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #666666; font-size: x-small; text-align: center;">Fonte da foto: </span><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/38703275@N06/6884645302" style="font-size: small; text-align: center;" target="_blank">flickr</a></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-13660275835083203992016-10-16T11:56:00.001-07:002016-10-30T07:49:17.875-07:00Como calcular o retorno dos seus investimentos<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Maria possui uma carteira diversificada de investimento (renda fixa, ações e outros). <span style="background-color: palegreen;">Qual é a maneira correta de calcular o desempenho dessa carteira de investimentos?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Os investimentos de Maria se deram da forma abaixo:</span><br />
<br />
<style>
table {
border-collapse: collapse;
}
table, th, td {
border: 1px solid lightgrey;
}
</style>
<br />
<table style="width: 100%;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th style="text-align: left;">Data</th>
<th style="text-align: left;">Aporte</th>
<th style="text-align: right;">Valor da carteira</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>01/janeiro</td>
<td>R$ 5.000,00</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">R$ 5.000,00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>31/janeiro</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align: right;">R$ 5.250,00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="color: grey;"><strong>Rendimentos janeiro</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="color: blue; text-align: right;">R$ 250,00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="color: grey;"><strong>Rentabilidade</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: right;"><span style="color: grey;">R$ 250,00 / R$ 5.000,00 = </span><span style="color: blue;"><strong>5%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>01/fevereiro</td>
<td>R$ 1.000,00</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">R$ 6.250,00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>28/fevereiro</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align: right;">R$ 6.875,00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="color: grey;"><strong>Rendimentos fevereiro</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="color: blue; text-align: right;">R$ 625,00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="color: grey;"><strong>Rentabilidade</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: right;"><span style="color: grey;">R$ 625,00 / R$ 6.250,00 = </span><span style="color: blue;"><strong>10%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>01/março</td>
<td>R$ 4.000,00</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">R$ 10.875,00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>31/março</td>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align: right;">R$ 9,787,50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="color: grey;"><strong>Rendimentos março</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="color: red; text-align: right;">-R$ 1.087,50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="color: grey;"><strong>Rentabilidade</strong></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: right;"><span style="color: grey;">-R$ 1.087,50 / R$ 10.875,00 = </span><span style="color: red;"><strong>-10%</strong></span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br />
<h2>
Variação do patrimônio</h2>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Aporte total: <b>R$ 10.000</b> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Valor final da carteira: <b>R$ 9,787,50</b> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Rendimentos: </span><b>R$ 9,787,50 - </b><b>R$ 10.000 </b><b>= </b><b style="color: red;">R$ -215,50</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Variação do patrimônio: <b style="color: red;">R$ -215,50 </b><b>/ R$ 10.000 = <span style="color: red;">-0,02%</span></b></span><br />
<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">A variação do patrimônio [(Valor final da carteira - Aportes) / Aportes] é uma forma bastante simples de acompanhamento.</span> Se a variação do patrimônio for negativa, como no caso da Maria, a estratégia de investimento precisa ser revista, pois está ocorrendo perda de dinheiro. Se a variação for positiva, no entanto, precisamos de um método mais sofisticado, pois <span style="background-color: palegreen;">esse método não leva em conta a inflação do período e não permite a comparação com outras formas de investimento (renda fixa, por exemplo).</span></span><br />
<h3>
</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h2>
Sistema de cotas</h2>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">O método do sistema de cotas basicamente calcula a rentabilidade média da carteira, a partir da rentabilidade individual de cada período.</span> No caso da Maria, o cálculo ficaria assim:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Rentabilidade de janeiro: 5%</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Rentabilidade de fevereiro: 10%</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Rentabilidade de março: <span style="color: red;">-10%</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Rentabilidade nos três meses: </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(1 + <b>0,05</b>) x (1 + <b>0,10</b>) x (1 <span style="color: red;"><b>- 0,10</b></span>) - 1 =</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">= 1,05 x 1,10 x 0,90 - 1 =</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">= 1,0395 - 1 =</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">= <b>3,95%</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Rentabilidade mensal:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">(1 + 3,95%) ^ 1/3 - 1 =</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">= <b>1,30%</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Para cálculos envolvendo taxas, veja a <a href="http://luxtextum.blogspot.com.br/2016/10/calculadora-de-taxas.html" target="_blank">Calculadora de taxas</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Mas Maria teve prejuízo. Essa rentabilidade está correta? Está sim. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">O sistema de cotas não mede o desempenho do investimento, ele mede o desempenho da carteira.</span> A carteira da Maria, apresentou, em média, uma rentabilidade de 1,30% ao mês. Mas Maria fez um investimento relativamento alto (R$ 4.000,00), em um período onde a carteira deu prejuízo, por isso o resultado final foi negativo. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: palegreen;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">O sistema de cotas mede a rentabilidade média da carteira, desconsiderando a periodicidade e o tamanho dos aportes.</span> Por isso, esse sistema é muito usado para medir o desempenho de gestores de fundos. Os gestores não tem controle sobre os aportes dos clientes e não seria justo penalizá-los se os clientes realizassem aportes somente nos períodos de menor rentabilidade.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Em inglês esse método é conhecido como <i>Time weighted rate of return</i>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<br />
<h2>
Taxa interna de retorno</h2>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">Para nosso exemplo, podemos entender a Taxa interna de retorno (TIR) como a taxa mensal fixa de um investimento que daria a Maria o mesmo resultado que ela obteve com a sua carteira.</span> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">É difícil calcular a TIR manualmente, então a melhor forma é usar a fórmula para TIR no Excel. Em português a fórmula é TIR e em inglês é IRR. No caso da Maria, teríamos que passar os seguintes valores para a fórmula: -R$ 5.000, -R$ 1.000, -R$ 4.000, R$ 9,787,50. Ou seja, os aportes como valores negativos e o valor final da carteira (e eventuais resgates) como valor positivo.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">A taxa interna de retorno de Maria encontrada para Maria foi <span style="color: red;"><b>-1,02%</b></span>. Ou seja, Maria obteria os mesmos resultados se aplicasse o seu dinheiro em um investimento que desse um prejuízo mensal de <span style="color: red;">-1,02%</span>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: palegreen;"><span style="font-size: large;">A taxa interna de retorno leva em conta a rentabilidade da carteira e o fluxo de aportes e resgates.</span></span><span style="font-size: large;"> No caso de um fundo de investimento, a taxa interna de retorno indicaria ao cliente se o seu fluxo pessoal de aportes trouxe ou não um resultado adequado.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">No contexto de retorno de carteiras, esse método é conhecido em inglês como <i>Money weighted rate of return</i>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<br />
<h2>
Conclusão</h2>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">No caso de Maria, podemos tirar duas conclusões. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">O sistema de cotas mostra que a rentabilidade da sua carteira de investimentos é 1,30% ao mês. Ou seja, se ela tivesse feito todos os seus aportes no primeiro mês, teria obtido um rendimento final de 3,95% e a sua variação de patrimônio teria sido positiva. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">Enquanto gestora do seu próprio fundo de investimento, Maria está atuando bem.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">A taxa interna de retorno mostra que o resultado final do seu fluxo de aportes não foi positivo. Ela teria obtido o mesmo resultado se tivesse aplicado o seu dinheiro em um investimento com prejuízo de <span style="color: red;">-1,02%</span> ao mês. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">Enquanto cliente do seu próprio fundo de investimento, Maria não fez os aportes nos momentos mais adequados.</span></span></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">Fontes:</span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://empresasemercados.blogspot.com.br/2014/07/calculo-de-retorno-de-carteiras.html" target="_blank">http://empresasemercados.blogspot.com.br/2014/07/calculo-de-retorno-de-carteiras.html</a></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://alemdapoupanca.blogspot.com.br/2012/04/calculando-de-forma-correta-seus.html" target="_blank">http://alemdapoupanca.blogspot.com.br/2012/04/calculando-de-forma-correta-seus.html</a></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.blueleaf.com/performance-reporting-choices-simplified/" target="_blank">https://www.blueleaf.com/performance-reporting-choices-simplified/</a></span><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.greaterthanzero.com/documentation?_eventName=freqMath&pageNo=1" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: large;">The Math of the Fixed Rate Equivalent (FREQ)</span></a><br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-37819131525861722832016-10-08T12:11:00.000-07:002016-10-17T04:24:57.363-07:00Diversificação de investimentos<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/XhhTguQU8GY/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XhhTguQU8GY?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Você tem 10 moedas de ouro e pretende comprar galinhas para a produção de ovos. Existem duas espécies de galinhas. Uma espécie produz 1 ovo por dia. A outra produz 3 ovos por dia. Cada galinha custa uma moeda de ouro, não importa a espécie. Quantas galinhas de cada espécie você deve comprar?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: palegreen; font-size: large;">A sua estratégia de compra depende do seu conhecimento, ou seja, do seu grau de incerteza.<span style="background-color: white;">Se você sabe qual espécie de galinha produz 3 ovos por dia, obviamente não compensa comprar galinhas da espécie que produz menos. Você pode utilizar as suas 10 moedas de outro e comprar 10 galinhas da mesma espécie. Assim, você teria 30 ovos por dia. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">A diversificação só faz sentido se houver incerteza.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Agora imagine que você não sabe qual espécie de galinha produz mais ovos. Qual seria a melhor estratégia? Vamos analisar algumas opções:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">1) Você compra 10 galinhas da mesma espécie. Se você estiver com sorte, você escolheu a melhor espécie e o seu lucro será de 30 ovos por dia. Se você deu azar e comprou a pior espécie, ficará com 10 ovos por dia. Ou seja, o seu resultado final pode ser de 10 a 30 ovos por dia. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">Sem diversificação e numa situação de incerteza, seu risco é o maior possível.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">2) Você compra 1 galinha de uma espécie e 9 da outra. Se você estiver com sorte, você comprou 9 galinhas da melhor espécie e o seu lucro
será de 28 (9 x 3 + 1) ovos por dia. Se você deu azar e comprou mais da pior espécie,
ficará com 12 (9 x 1 + 3) ovos por dia. Ou seja, o seu resultado final pode ser de
12 a 28 ovos por dia. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">A diversificação reduz o limite inferior e o limite superior de lucro.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">3) Você compra 5 galinhas de cada espécie. Nesse caso, você terá 5 galinhas que botam 1 ovo por dia e 5 galinhas que botam 3 ovos por dia. Ou seja, é certo que você terá uma produção de 20 ovos por dia. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">Quanto maior a diversificação, menor o risco.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Colocando todas as opções em um gráfico: </span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPi9LftWxevx40Rzt7cq2MZKZr0ikpgvJOMEm_HU1JcggmEF3-ndTl6Swso9VwarBX6JHvxJRLnQOepgwRDC_JIut-UCwp5I3r8eGgLisDeHxiu3oYDB1JuzfyQLNVo3DYRpUViJGaCoY/s1600/diversificacao-lucro-risco.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Diversificação X Lucro X Risco" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPi9LftWxevx40Rzt7cq2MZKZr0ikpgvJOMEm_HU1JcggmEF3-ndTl6Swso9VwarBX6JHvxJRLnQOepgwRDC_JIut-UCwp5I3r8eGgLisDeHxiu3oYDB1JuzfyQLNVo3DYRpUViJGaCoY/s1600/diversificacao-lucro-risco.png" title="" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">Resumindo:</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">A diversificação reduz a incerteza (risco).</span> Quanto mais diversificado o investimento, menor a distância entre o pior e o menor caso.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">A diversificação aumenta o lucro mínimo</span> (ou reduz o prejuízo máximo).</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: orange;">A diversificação reduz o lucro máximo</span> (quanto menor o risco, menor o lucro). </span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: large;">Qual seria a sua estratégia?</span><br />
<ul> </ul>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-10086288386373764982016-09-21T03:04:00.001-07:002016-10-17T04:25:48.045-07:00Probabilidade - O problema das três portas<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/G9-H4sce0G0/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/G9-H4sce0G0?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Em 1990, Marylin vos Savant respondeu, em sua coluna da revista Parade, à seguinte pergunta:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Suponha que </span><span style="font-size: large;">você está em show de TV e deve escolher entre três portas. Atrás de uma das portas há um carro. Atrás das outras, cabras. Você escolhe a porta número 1 e o apresentador, que sabe onde o carro está, abre outra porta, digamos a porta 3. Ele te diz: "Você quer escolher a porta 2?". É vantajoso trocar de porta?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Marylin, citada no livro Guinness por seu alto QI, respondeu que sim. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">Quem troca de porta tem 2/3 de chances de acerto.</span> A chance de quem permanece com a porta inicial é de 1/3.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Sua resposta provocou respostas iradas de inúmeros matemáticos e um grande debate se iniciou. Após muita polêmica, a resposta de Marylin foi finalmente aceita como correta.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">A chance do competidor acertar a porta na primeira escolha é de 1/3. Assim, é mais provável que o carro esteja em uma das outras duas portas. Por isso, é melhor trocar de porta.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<style>
.doors {
height: 110px;
}
.door {
display: inline-block;
width: 100px;
height: 100px;
line-height: 100px;
text-align: center;
vertical-align: middle;
font-size: 150%;
font-weight: bold;
-webkit-touch-callout: none; /* iOS Safari */
-webkit-user-select: none; /* Chrome/Safari/Opera */
-khtml-user-select: none; /* Konqueror */
-moz-user-select: none; /* Firefox */
-ms-user-select: none; /* Internet Explorer/Edge */
user-select: none;
}
.closed {
background-color: blue;
color: white;
border-style: solid;
border-color: blue;
cursor: pointer;
box-shadow: 3px 3px 3px #888888;
}
.open {
background-color: lightgrey;
}
span.door.closed:hover {
box-shadow: 1px 1px 1px #888888;
}
.selected {
border-style: solid;
border-color: gold;
}
.prize {
background-color: palegreen;
color: green;
}
.non-prize {
background-color: pink;
color: red;
}
.message {
display: inline-block;
font-size: 100%;
margin-top: 10px;
font-weight: bold;
}
.change-info {
margin-right: 10px;
color: #651FFF;
}
.stay-info {
color: #00695C;
}
.open.selected.prize {
border-color: green;
}
.open.selected.non-prize {
border-color: red;
}
.meter {
height: 30px;
line-height: 30px;
position: relative;
background: lightgrey;
padding: 1px;
box-shadow: inset 0 -1px 1px rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.3);
margin-top: 0.5em;
margin-bottom: 0.5em;
width: 100%
}
.meter > span.left {
display: inline-block;
height: 100%;
color: white;
background-color: #651FFF;
position: relative;
overflow: hidden;
text-align: center;
}
.meter > span.right {
float: right;
display: inline-block;
height: 100%;
color: white;
background-color: #00695C;
position: relative;
overflow: hidden;
text-align: center;
}
.flash {
animation-name: flash-frames;
animation-duration: 2s;
}
@keyframes flash-frames {
0% {
border-color: white;
border-style: none;
background-color: transparent
}
50% {
border-color: black;
border-style: none;
background-color: #B2FF59
}
100% {
border-color: white;
border-style: none;
background-color: transparent
}
}
</style>
<div>
<p>Clique nas portas para experimentar.</p>
<div id="doors" class="game">
<span id="door1" class="door">
Porta 1
</span>
<span id="door2" class="door">
Porta 2
</span>
<span id="door3" class="door">
Porta 3
</span>
</div>
<div>
<span id="changeWinInfo" class="message change-info"></span>
<span id="stayWinInfo" class="message stay-info"></span>
</div>
<div class="meter">
<span id="percChangeWin" class="left " style="width: 25%">25%</span>
<span id="percStayWin" class="right" style="width: 75%">75%</span>
</div>
<button id='play' class="closed">
Jogar de novo
</button>
</div>
<script>
var playButton = document.getElementById('play');
var gameArea = document.getElementById('game');
var messageArea = document.getElementById('messageArea');
var changeWinInfo = document.getElementById('changeWinInfo');
var stayWinInfo = document.getElementById('stayWinInfo');
var percChangeWinView = document.getElementById('percChangeWin');
var percStayWinView = document.getElementById('percStayWin');
var door1 = document.getElementById('door1');
var door2 = document.getElementById('door2');
var door3 = document.getElementById('door3');
var doors = [door1, door2, door3];
var game = {
count: 0,
numChangeWins: 0,
percChangeWin: 0,
containsPrize: function(doorNumber) {
return this.winningDoor === doorNumber;
},
isSelected: function(doorNumber) {
return this.selectedDoor === doorNumber;
},
isOpen: function(doorNumber) {
return this.finalDoor || this.removedDoor === doorNumber;
},
play: function() {
this.firstDoor = null;
this.finalDoor = null;
this.selectedDoor = null;
this.removedDoor = null;
this.win = null;
this.changeWins = null;
this.winningDoor = Math.floor((Math.random() * 3) + 1);
},
register: function() {
this.count += 1;
this.win = this.winningDoor === this.selectedDoor;
this.changeWins = this.winningDoor !== this.firstDoor;
if (this.changeWins) {
this.numChangeWins += 1;
}
this.percChangeWin = Math.round(this.numChangeWins / this.count * 100);
},
chooseDoor: function(doorNumber) {
if (this.finalDoor) {
throw new Error('Game ended. Start a new game.')
}
if (this.removedDoor === doorNumber) {
throw new Error('This door was removed');
}
if (this.firstDoor) {
this.finalDoor = doorNumber;
this.selectedDoor = doorNumber;
this.register();
} else {
this.firstDoor = doorNumber;
this.selectedDoor = doorNumber;
this.removeDoor();
}
},
removeDoor: function() {
var candidates = [];
for (var door = 1; door <= 3; door++) {
if (door != this.firstDoor && door != this.winningDoor) {
candidates.push(door);
}
}
if (candidates.length === 1) {
this.removedDoor = candidates[0];
} else {
var indice = Math.floor((Math.random() * 2) + 1) - 1;
this.removedDoor = candidates[indice];
}
}
};
function resetDoor(door, i) {
door.innerHTML = 'Porta ' + i;
door.className = "door closed";
}
playButton.onclick = function() {
game.play();
resetDoor(door1, 1);
resetDoor(door2, 2);
resetDoor(door3, 3);
update();
}
playButton.onclick();
function clickDoor(doorNumber) {
if (game.finalDoor) {
playButton.onclick();
} else {
game.chooseDoor(doorNumber);
}
update();
}
door1.onclick = function() {
clickDoor(1);
}
door2.onclick = function() {
clickDoor(2);
}
door3.onclick = function() {
clickDoor(3);
}
function update() {
changeWinInfo.innerHTML = 'Melhor trocar a porta (' + game.numChangeWins + ')';
if (game.changeWins === null) {
stayWinInfo.classList.remove("flash");
changeWinInfo.classList.remove("flash");
}
if (game.changeWins === true) {
changeWinInfo.classList.add("flash");
}
if (game.changeWins === false) {
stayWinInfo.classList.add("flash");
}
stayWinInfo.innerHTML = 'Melhor não trocar a porta (' + (game.count - game.numChangeWins) + ')';
percChangeWinView.style.width = game.percChangeWin + '%';
percChangeWinView.innerHTML = game.percChangeWin + '%';
var percStayWin = game.count === 0 ? 0: 100 - game.percChangeWin;
percStayWinView.style.width = percStayWin + '%';
percStayWinView.innerHTML = percStayWin + '%';
updateDoorView(game, 1);
updateDoorView(game, 2);
updateDoorView(game, 3);
}
function updateDoorView(game, doorNumber) {
var door = doors[doorNumber - 1];
var classList = doors[doorNumber - 1].classList;
if (game.isSelected(doorNumber)) {
classList.add('selected');
} else {
classList.remove('selected');
}
if (game.isOpen(doorNumber)) {
classList.remove('closed');
classList.add('open');
var winningDoor = game.containsPrize(doorNumber);
door.innerHTML = winningDoor ? '$$$' : 'X';
if (winningDoor) {
classList.add('prize');
} else {
classList.add('non-prize');
}
}
}
</script>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Agora imagine um outro problema. Você está participando de uma "raspadinha". Existem 1.000 bilhetes. Apenas 1 está premiado. Você comprou 1 bilhete e o seu amigo comprou 999. Seu amigo raspou 998 bilhetes e nenhum estava premiado. Restam então dois bilhetes: um com você e outro com o seu amigo. Ele te propõe trocar os bilhetes. Você aceitaria?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Fontes:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<a href="http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/" target="_blank">Game Show Problem</a></span><br />
<a href="http://kottke.org/16/09/the-monty-hall-problem-explained" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: large;">The Monty Hall Problem Explained</span></a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4695318514081854484.post-77722022111297950862016-09-20T09:26:00.002-07:002016-10-17T04:28:08.144-07:00Saindo da bolha<br />
<h2>
<span style="font-size: large;">Para crescer, conheça ideias opostas às suas</span></h2>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Você convive sempre com as mesmas pessoas? Você escuta ideias contrárias às suas? Quando você não concorda com algum comentário, o que faz? Bloqueia? Rebate prontamente?</span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibwS98iGy6HrNeAlzz4zfdD1Ijdm0So72-yVhmRPYCGtnCH7RutmTmMzhcl5S5SNKcQXCesBHaGuGkj1T6zdGBAl430mNbHjnL9QngJeR3aavTUU-dQa2rM452z5KnPyaYBltbIREGCxU/s1600/saia-da-bolha.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibwS98iGy6HrNeAlzz4zfdD1Ijdm0So72-yVhmRPYCGtnCH7RutmTmMzhcl5S5SNKcQXCesBHaGuGkj1T6zdGBAl430mNbHjnL9QngJeR3aavTUU-dQa2rM452z5KnPyaYBltbIREGCxU/s400/saia-da-bolha.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: palegreen; font-size: large;">Cuidado, você pode estar vivendo em uma bolha cognitiva.</span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Uma bolha onde todos pensam da mesma forma, onde suas ideias não são questionadas. Onde você se sente seguro. Mas essa segurança tem um preço, a estagnação. A bolha limita. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">Dentro da bolha você só escuta os seus próprios pensamentos.</span> Como todos pensam de forma parecida, a opinião dos seus companheiros é simplesmente um eco dos seus próprios pensamentos.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: palegreen;">Para crescer, é necessário sair da bolha.</span> Viver experiências diferentes. <span style="background-color: white;">Escutar aqueles que pensam de forma radicalmente diferente de você.</span> Quando tentamos compreender pensamentos diferentes dos nossos, duas coisas podem acontecer. Nossas ideias anteriores saem enfraquecidas (isso é ótimo, porque assim conceitos novos e mais adequados podem surgir) ou fortalecidas (isso também é ótimo, porque agora nossa convicção ainda é maior, pois sobreviveu ao confronto).</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">O co-fundador da <a href="https://secure.avaaz.org/po/" target="_blank">Avaaz.org</a>, Eli Pariser, alerta em seu livro <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Filter-Bubble-Personalized-Changing-Think/dp/0143121235" target="_blank">The Filter Bubble</a>, que <span style="background-color: palegreen;">os algoritmos de personalização do Facebook e do Google escondem o que é desconfortável e desafiador</span>, criando uma rede de uma pessoa só.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Eli, que se considera um progressista, sempre gostou de ter comentários de conservadores no seu "feed" de notícias. Mas um dia ele percebeu que o Facebook estava escondendo esses comentários. A algoritmo da rede social estava colocando Eli em uma filtro-bolha, que deixava passar apenas notícias e comentários alinhados com os interesses principais do autor.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">O mesmo acontece com o Google. Os resultados de busca são diferentes para cada pessoa. <span style="background-color: palegreen;">A ferramenta de busca e a rede social decidem o que é mais relevante para cada pessoa, criando um isolamento virtual que muitas vezes não é percebido.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">E você, está uma bolha cognitiva? </span><br />
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Fontes:<br />
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<a href="http://pensamentosfinanceiros.blogspot.com.br/2016/09/uma-homenagem-ao-site-mises-brasil.html" target="_blank">UMA HOMENAGEM AO SITE MISES BRASIL - SOBRE A NECESSIDADE DE QUESTIONARMOS NOSSAS IDEIAS</a><br />
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<a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/eli_pariser_beware_online_filter_bubbles?language=pt-br" target="_blank">Eli Pariser: Tenha cuidado com os "filtros-bolha" online</a><br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13892800451972591275noreply@blogger.com1